Prospect Watch for Brandon Wood: Ryan Howard or Chad Hermansen?

Note: *Total analysis of this report is to be found at the bottom of the page, for those interested in the Cliff-note version*

Every now and then, I'd like to be doing a prospect update on the top guys in the Angels organization. Since this is the first of its kind, I'll start with the first prospect people usually focus on when discussing the Angels: Brandon Wood.

Everyone familiar with Brandon Wood knows the basics to his resume: a whole ot lof power and run production, and a whole lot of swings and misses. His breakthrough season in 2005 in Rancho Cucamongo (A+) saw him hit 43HRs, but also strikeout 128 times. 2006 saw those numbers go to 25HRs and 149Ks in AA Arkansas, and 2007 so far has him at 19HRs and 94Ks through 89 games at AAA Salt Lake.

At the beginning of its 2007 scouting reports, Baseball America compared his worst-case scenario to that of Chad Hermansen, the former top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates who flamed out in the Major Leagues right around 2000-01. A high strikeout rate is frequently indicative of failure at the Major League level, due to a hitter's inability to make adjustments to the highest level pitchers who are capable of exploiting a free swinger's plate approach.

So let's take a look at some numbers for both Hermansen and Wood:

K-Rates
Wood: 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1K per 4.19AB
Hermansen: 1996 (Age 18, A and A+): 1K per 3.94AB

Wood: 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1K per 3.04AB
Hermansen: 1997 (Age 19, Double-A): 1K per 3.58AB

Wood: 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1K per 3.69AB
Hermansen: 1999 (Age 21, Triple-A): 1K per 4.17AB

XBH-Rates
Wood, 2005: 1 XBH per 5.47AB (.672 SLG)
Hermansen, 1996: 1XBH per 9.17AB (.486 SLG)

Wood, 2006: 1 XBH per 6.38AB (.552 SLG)
Hermansen, 1997: 1XBH per 8.85AB (.478 SLG)

Wood, 2007: 1 XBH per 8.92AB (.493 SLG)
Hermansen, 1999: 1XBH per 8.00AB (.530 SLG)

From that point on out in Hermansen's career, it was all downhill. He travelled between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Nashville, before become a career "player to be named later". As of two days ago, he had been traded somewhere in the Mets organization.

Although you will notice from the numbers that Wood's strikeout rate is generally higher (with the exception of their Single-A numbers), their rates did trend in roughly the same direction: being at their best in A-Ball, taking a dive in Double-A, and improving once more in Triple-A. This is to be expected for many young hitters who swing freely as they progress through the systems.

However, the most notable discrepency between the two hitters is perhaps the saving grace of Brandon Wood in comparison to Chad Hermansen, and that is in their ability (or lack thereof) to also draw the walk: In 2005, Wood had a .062 differential between BA and OBP, which increased to .079 in 2006, and again to .087 in 2007. In the meantime, Hermansen went from a .099 differential in Single-A, all the way down to a .051 by the time he was in Triple-A baseball, nearly cutting his walk totals in half. Don't be fooled into thinking it didn't mean much: among his failures in the majors was the 14 walks he drew in 223 at-bats from 1999-2001.

The next comparison is to that of current All-Star and Major League slugger, Ryan Howard. I'll cut to the chase:

K-Rates
Wood: 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1K per 4.19AB
Howard: 2001-03 (Age 21-23, Low-A to High-A): 1K per 3.28AB

Wood: 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1K per 3.04AB
Howard: 2004 (Age 24, Double-A): 1K per 2.90AB

Wood: 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1K per 3.69AB
Howard: 2004-05 (Age 24-25 Triple-A): 1K per 3.12AB

XBH-Rates
Wood, 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1 XBH per 5.47AB (.672 SLG)
Howard: 2001-03 (Age 21-23, Low-A to High-A): 1 XBH per 9.68AB (.486 SLG)

Wood, 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1 XBH per 6.38AB (.552 SLG)
Howard: 2004 (Age 24, Double-A): 1 XBH per 6.68AB (.647 SLG)

Wood, 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1 XBH per 8.92AB (.493 SLG)
Howard: 2004-05 (Age 24-25, Triple-A): 1 XBH per 5.94ABs (.660 SLG)

Howard's strikeout numbers are just flat-out unparalleled by either Wood or Hermansen. His Single-A "OBP/AVG discrepency" was .084. It was .089 in Double-A, and .092 in Triple-A. Essentially, there is no trend to his ability to draw a walk. It has been consistently solid, and in line with a high-power, high-OBP, high-K type hitter. Think Adam Dunn, if Adam Dunn had less Mendoza in him. And we've already seen what Howard can do on the big league level, so I think it's safe to assume the fact that he strikes-out as though he'd paid by the K has had no effect on contributing to a big club.


-Conclusion-

So what I wanted to try to do here was paint a picture of three fairly similar professional baseball players, based on Minor League numbers. All three have different current states of existence: Hermansen is a qualified bust in all regards, Howard an undeniable power house of a slugger, and Wood an unproven talent with large upside who just started to legally be allowed to drink less than 6 months ago.

Obviously using K-rates alone is flawed, because Howard struck out at a rate far exceeding either Wood or Hermansen in the minor leagues. Using power trends across different levels of the minor leagues can also be flawed, as you generally tend to flat-line if your power is jeopardized at the expense of the walk. Brandon Wood has done a very good job of becoming a gradually more selective hitter. His high (albeit, declining) strikeout numbers have been offset by an increase in his walk rates, suggesting that he is aware of which pitches he is comfortable putting into play. Hermansen's power came at the expense of increased impatience at the plate while swinging for the fences.

Howard's size and freakish Triple-A numbers far exceed those of Hermansen and Wood as well. However, Howard was also, by a matter of 3-4 years, significantly older than both of the other young men. The power mold of a young hitter begins to develop right around the age of 23-25 years old. Given this time frame, young Brandon Wood has yet to be given a chance to fully develop his body into that of a power hitter.

The conclusion seems simple: comparisons to the likes of Chad Hermansen are fatally flawed by Wood's significantly increased ability to draw the walk. In this sense, there can be no direct comparison to Hermansen, which is to say Wood is highly unlikely to turn out much the same way. The Ryan Howard comparison? We'll have to put that one on hold until Brandon Wood has finished off physically growing into his frame.

The best bet is obviously a middle ground. I'll put my bet on the high-side towards Howard, and far, far from a bust.