Note: *Total analysis of this report is to be found at the bottom of the page, for those interested in the Cliff-note version*
Every now and then, I'd like to be doing a prospect update on the top guys in the Angels organization. Since this is the first of its kind, I'll start with the first prospect people usually focus on when discussing the Angels: Brandon Wood.
Everyone familiar with Brandon Wood knows the basics to his resume: a whole ot lof power and run production, and a whole lot of swings and misses. His breakthrough season in 2005 in Rancho Cucamongo (A+) saw him hit 43HRs, but also strikeout 128 times. 2006 saw those numbers go to 25HRs and 149Ks in AA Arkansas, and 2007 so far has him at 19HRs and 94Ks through 89 games at AAA Salt Lake.
At the beginning of its 2007 scouting reports, Baseball America compared his worst-case scenario to that of Chad Hermansen, the former top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates who flamed out in the Major Leagues right around 2000-01. A high strikeout rate is frequently indicative of failure at the Major League level, due to a hitter's inability to make adjustments to the highest level pitchers who are capable of exploiting a free swinger's plate approach.
So let's take a look at some numbers for both Hermansen and Wood:
K-Rates
Wood: 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1K per 4.19AB
Hermansen: 1996 (Age 18, A and A+): 1K per 3.94AB
Wood: 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1K per 3.04AB
Hermansen: 1997 (Age 19, Double-A): 1K per 3.58AB
Wood: 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1K per 3.69AB
Hermansen: 1999 (Age 21, Triple-A): 1K per 4.17AB
XBH-Rates
Wood, 2005: 1 XBH per 5.47AB (.672 SLG)
Hermansen, 1996: 1XBH per 9.17AB (.486 SLG)
Wood, 2006: 1 XBH per 6.38AB (.552 SLG)
Hermansen, 1997: 1XBH per 8.85AB (.478 SLG)
Wood, 2007: 1 XBH per 8.92AB (.493 SLG)
Hermansen, 1999: 1XBH per 8.00AB (.530 SLG)
From that point on out in Hermansen's career, it was all downhill. He travelled between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Nashville, before become a career "player to be named later". As of two days ago, he had been traded somewhere in the Mets organization.
Although you will notice from the numbers that Wood's strikeout rate is generally higher (with the exception of their Single-A numbers), their rates did trend in roughly the same direction: being at their best in A-Ball, taking a dive in Double-A, and improving once more in Triple-A. This is to be expected for many young hitters who swing freely as they progress through the systems.
However, the most notable discrepency between the two hitters is perhaps the saving grace of Brandon Wood in comparison to Chad Hermansen, and that is in their ability (or lack thereof) to also draw the walk: In 2005, Wood had a .062 differential between BA and OBP, which increased to .079 in 2006, and again to .087 in 2007. In the meantime, Hermansen went from a .099 differential in Single-A, all the way down to a .051 by the time he was in Triple-A baseball, nearly cutting his walk totals in half. Don't be fooled into thinking it didn't mean much: among his failures in the majors was the 14 walks he drew in 223 at-bats from 1999-2001.
The next comparison is to that of current All-Star and Major League slugger, Ryan Howard. I'll cut to the chase:
K-Rates
Wood: 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1K per 4.19AB
Howard: 2001-03 (Age 21-23, Low-A to High-A): 1K per 3.28AB
Wood: 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1K per 3.04AB
Howard: 2004 (Age 24, Double-A): 1K per 2.90AB
Wood: 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1K per 3.69AB
Howard: 2004-05 (Age 24-25 Triple-A): 1K per 3.12AB
XBH-Rates
Wood, 2005 (Age 20, Single-A): 1 XBH per 5.47AB (.672 SLG)
Howard: 2001-03 (Age 21-23, Low-A to High-A): 1 XBH per 9.68AB (.486 SLG)
Wood, 2006 (Age 21, Double-A): 1 XBH per 6.38AB (.552 SLG)
Howard: 2004 (Age 24, Double-A): 1 XBH per 6.68AB (.647 SLG)
Wood, 2007 (Age 22, Triple-A): 1 XBH per 8.92AB (.493 SLG)
Howard: 2004-05 (Age 24-25, Triple-A): 1 XBH per 5.94ABs (.660 SLG)
Howard's strikeout numbers are just flat-out unparalleled by either Wood or Hermansen. His Single-A "OBP/AVG discrepency" was .084. It was .089 in Double-A, and .092 in Triple-A. Essentially, there is no trend to his ability to draw a walk. It has been consistently solid, and in line with a high-power, high-OBP, high-K type hitter. Think Adam Dunn, if Adam Dunn had less Mendoza in him. And we've already seen what Howard can do on the big league level, so I think it's safe to assume the fact that he strikes-out as though he'd paid by the K has had no effect on contributing to a big club.
-Conclusion-
So what I wanted to try to do here was paint a picture of three fairly similar professional baseball players, based on Minor League numbers. All three have different current states of existence: Hermansen is a qualified bust in all regards, Howard an undeniable power house of a slugger, and Wood an unproven talent with large upside who just started to legally be allowed to drink less than 6 months ago.
Obviously using K-rates alone is flawed, because Howard struck out at a rate far exceeding either Wood or Hermansen in the minor leagues. Using power trends across different levels of the minor leagues can also be flawed, as you generally tend to flat-line if your power is jeopardized at the expense of the walk. Brandon Wood has done a very good job of becoming a gradually more selective hitter. His high (albeit, declining) strikeout numbers have been offset by an increase in his walk rates, suggesting that he is aware of which pitches he is comfortable putting into play. Hermansen's power came at the expense of increased impatience at the plate while swinging for the fences.
Howard's size and freakish Triple-A numbers far exceed those of Hermansen and Wood as well. However, Howard was also, by a matter of 3-4 years, significantly older than both of the other young men. The power mold of a young hitter begins to develop right around the age of 23-25 years old. Given this time frame, young Brandon Wood has yet to be given a chance to fully develop his body into that of a power hitter.
The conclusion seems simple: comparisons to the likes of Chad Hermansen are fatally flawed by Wood's significantly increased ability to draw the walk. In this sense, there can be no direct comparison to Hermansen, which is to say Wood is highly unlikely to turn out much the same way. The Ryan Howard comparison? We'll have to put that one on hold until Brandon Wood has finished off physically growing into his frame.
The best bet is obviously a middle ground. I'll put my bet on the high-side towards Howard, and far, far from a bust.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Wednesday, August 8th: Angels vs. Red Sox: Recap
What a terribly disappointing night for the Angels. Going into the third and final game of the series at home against the Red Sox, looking for the sweep, and they just brought on a huge letdown.
Taking an early 3-0 lead in the first, after two, and seeing Moseley look strong through 3 shutout innings, the Angels really looked poised to sweep the team with the best record in baseball. Moseley just let the wheels fall off in the 4th, and then the Angels bounced straight back with yet another big hit (a two-run double) from Chone Figgins. The man is just money in the fucking bank. He doesn't know how to not hit. It's as if Howie Kendrick is hitting vicariously through Figgins since he's stuck on the D.L. himself.
Scioscia, for reasons only he could possibly tell you, and that I'm sure you wouldn't agree with anyway, marches Moseley right back out, and he gives up a two-spot to put the Sox ahead.
After tying the game at 6, the Angels' big three in the bullpen begin their work. But Speier gives up a home run to Dustin Pedroia, and you could just feel the game slip away from there. Scot Shields was erratic as hell, the game went to 9-6, and with Okajima-Gagne-Papelbon coming on, it was all overwith.
But you want a real blame of the game? It's Orlando Cabrera all the way. One of the worst, most unclutch performances I have ever seen put up in a game. Nevermind Moseley's ugly 4 2/3IP, 6ER line. Look at this dousy: 0 for 5, 1K, 2 DPs, and 7 left on base. Horrible. The man should be shipped back to Boston immediately so the fans there can give him some adoring nickname and he can continue his cult status there despite not really doing anything for the team in his time there.
Speaking of annoying legacies. Fuck Kevin Youkilis. I've never seen a guy come across as such an arrogant piece of shit from such a short time watching someone. He just has the most absurd demeanor I've ever seen...for a guy two years in the league, he looks like he thinks every umpire owes him every close call. Why exactly is this guy already a legend in Red Sox lore? Can someone explain this shit to me? Talk about overhyped. Fuck'em and the ego he came riding in on.
I'll take two out of three from the Red Sox anyday of the week, but this was a sweep waiting to happen that slipped between the Angels' fingers.
Look out for the dominating headlines sure to break on ESPN.com as they talk up the 'Big Red Sox win', coupled with a Yankees loss today. Sure to be the top Sportscenter discussion point after fucking burying the Angels' back to back wins against that same Sox team the last two nights. Sports media is absurd...take it from a guy who suffers its horrible coverage every day of the week.
Oh, and that Kevin Kennedy guy? The one who has spent the last two nights of Angels' victories over the Sox talking about how lucky the Angels were to face the Sox's 3-4-5 in the rotation? Hey buddy, go look over the fucking Angels' rotation and tell me where Weaver-Saunders-Moseley rank in the picture. Pretty freakin' sure it's 3-4-5, also. Moseley and Saunders have about 20 combined career starts, and all you can do is be a petty Sox-apologist for their losses, while overlooking the EXACT same circumstances working against the Angels? Puh-lease. The Angels just took two of three from the Sox from the back end of their rotation, and damn near swept them.
Taking an early 3-0 lead in the first, after two, and seeing Moseley look strong through 3 shutout innings, the Angels really looked poised to sweep the team with the best record in baseball. Moseley just let the wheels fall off in the 4th, and then the Angels bounced straight back with yet another big hit (a two-run double) from Chone Figgins. The man is just money in the fucking bank. He doesn't know how to not hit. It's as if Howie Kendrick is hitting vicariously through Figgins since he's stuck on the D.L. himself.
Scioscia, for reasons only he could possibly tell you, and that I'm sure you wouldn't agree with anyway, marches Moseley right back out, and he gives up a two-spot to put the Sox ahead.
After tying the game at 6, the Angels' big three in the bullpen begin their work. But Speier gives up a home run to Dustin Pedroia, and you could just feel the game slip away from there. Scot Shields was erratic as hell, the game went to 9-6, and with Okajima-Gagne-Papelbon coming on, it was all overwith.
But you want a real blame of the game? It's Orlando Cabrera all the way. One of the worst, most unclutch performances I have ever seen put up in a game. Nevermind Moseley's ugly 4 2/3IP, 6ER line. Look at this dousy: 0 for 5, 1K, 2 DPs, and 7 left on base. Horrible. The man should be shipped back to Boston immediately so the fans there can give him some adoring nickname and he can continue his cult status there despite not really doing anything for the team in his time there.
Speaking of annoying legacies. Fuck Kevin Youkilis. I've never seen a guy come across as such an arrogant piece of shit from such a short time watching someone. He just has the most absurd demeanor I've ever seen...for a guy two years in the league, he looks like he thinks every umpire owes him every close call. Why exactly is this guy already a legend in Red Sox lore? Can someone explain this shit to me? Talk about overhyped. Fuck'em and the ego he came riding in on.
I'll take two out of three from the Red Sox anyday of the week, but this was a sweep waiting to happen that slipped between the Angels' fingers.
Look out for the dominating headlines sure to break on ESPN.com as they talk up the 'Big Red Sox win', coupled with a Yankees loss today. Sure to be the top Sportscenter discussion point after fucking burying the Angels' back to back wins against that same Sox team the last two nights. Sports media is absurd...take it from a guy who suffers its horrible coverage every day of the week.
Oh, and that Kevin Kennedy guy? The one who has spent the last two nights of Angels' victories over the Sox talking about how lucky the Angels were to face the Sox's 3-4-5 in the rotation? Hey buddy, go look over the fucking Angels' rotation and tell me where Weaver-Saunders-Moseley rank in the picture. Pretty freakin' sure it's 3-4-5, also. Moseley and Saunders have about 20 combined career starts, and all you can do is be a petty Sox-apologist for their losses, while overlooking the EXACT same circumstances working against the Angels? Puh-lease. The Angels just took two of three from the Sox from the back end of their rotation, and damn near swept them.
The Angels' Offense and the Myth of the "Big Bat"
If you've visited any sports websites lately, and if you're here, you almost definitely have, you've definitely noticed one trend in all reporting on the Angels current state: everyone is 100% sure they need the "big bat" to compete. Vladimir Guerrero needs protection in the lineup, according to so-called experts. The Angels offense just 'isn't good enough' to compete in the playoffs.
But the real mystery here isn't why General Manger Bill Stoneman hasn't acquired the bat over the last two seasons, but why everyone seems so insistent that they even need this bat (to his credit, there have been several efforts, including losing out to the White Sox for Paul Konerko when he decided to stay with his home team, a trade for Miguel Tejada shot down by Orioles owner Peter Angelos, and being outbid by the Chicago Cubs for Alfonso Soriano, who dropped a ridiculous sum to sign him).
CBS Sportsline writer Eric Mack writes:
"Vladdy's back popping homers, but we can't help but scoff at GM Bill Stoneman failing to add anything -- repeat anything -- again at the trade deadline. How can he justify this as GM of an annual contender?"
Well Mr. Mack, you just answered your own question. He can justify it because he is the GM of an annual contender. It's not like he just inherited this team from another GM who made it into the juggernaut it is. He is the man behind the franchise's current make-up, helping bring it 1 world series ring, 2 division titles, 3 playoff appearances, and 4 winning seasons in the last 5 years, not counting their 66-46 record this year. If he's doing such a terrible job without adding this apparently-needed bat, then why such broad success for the last half-decade?
Because they just plain don't need it.
This of course is not to be taken to mean the Angels would be better off without one (although one could argue that, with what they would have to give up to get one, they would be), but that the supposed pressing need to absolutely have one in order to contend is just not true. Pundits will look at the franchise and point out they have a meager 80 home runs this year (compared to the Major League average of 111), or that they once went 14 games without a home run this year. But those same pundits will convienently forget to tell you that those same Angels still somehow rank 3rd of 30 in the Major Leagues in batting average, 4th in hits, 6th in runs scored, and 1st in the American League (second only to the New York Mets in the majors) in stolen bases. For good measure, they're also 3rd in doubles, 2nd in sacrifice flies, 1st in going from first-to-third base on singles, and only 3 teams in baseball strikeout less. You don't exactly need to fish around much to find the stats showing how good of an offensive team this is.
The beauty of baseball is that there are so many ways to score a run. Not having an abudance of men who can crush a ball 450 feet doesn't deny a team the oppurtunity to have an offense-oriented club. The 2002 Anaheim Angels, the very same who won the World Series that year, were in a 3-way tie for the 21st most home runs in all of baseball. It certainly didn't stop them from succeeding. All the absence of the "big bat" does is potentially close one avenue to scoring.
Why are we not citing the contending Detroit Tigers' failure to acquire the 'big leg' at the trade deadline? Surely they could improve on their 26th-ranked stolen bases? And if the home run is so important, surely the 2nd-ranked Cincinnati Reds should be better than 16 games under .500?
The Angels' offense is not constructed around the need to hit a home run. In fact, falling back and relying on the home run to carry your offense is one of the biggest mistakes a club can make. When the home run fails you, your offense will inevitably sputter. Having role players like an Orlando Cabrera, who puts the ball in play consistently, or a Chone Figgins, who can utilize speed to force mistakes by fielders or beat out an otherwise-routine groundball, gives the Angels just as much a chance to score runs as needed. Cabrera and Figgins are just two of the Angels' five everyday players batting .300 or better right now (Vladimir Guerrero, Casey Kotchman, and Reggie Willits are the other three). Future perennial batting title contender Howie Kendrick has been on the D.L. for much of the year, and could easily turn his .297 batting average into the sixth such player upon his return.
So why the calls for the Angels to acquire such a bat? Because baseball writers tend to decry the Angels' style of play as antiquated and inferior to the offensive approach involving the home run. Because many of them are too caught up in the coverage of contenders who rely on the home run to look beyond the Angels' long ball totals and see how impressive of an offensive club they really are dealing with. It's one of role-players, one through nine in the order who know how to put the ball in play and push across runs when needed.
Nevermind the fact that they also have the 4th best ERA in the American League.
But the real mystery here isn't why General Manger Bill Stoneman hasn't acquired the bat over the last two seasons, but why everyone seems so insistent that they even need this bat (to his credit, there have been several efforts, including losing out to the White Sox for Paul Konerko when he decided to stay with his home team, a trade for Miguel Tejada shot down by Orioles owner Peter Angelos, and being outbid by the Chicago Cubs for Alfonso Soriano, who dropped a ridiculous sum to sign him).
CBS Sportsline writer Eric Mack writes:
"Vladdy's back popping homers, but we can't help but scoff at GM Bill Stoneman failing to add anything -- repeat anything -- again at the trade deadline. How can he justify this as GM of an annual contender?"
Well Mr. Mack, you just answered your own question. He can justify it because he is the GM of an annual contender. It's not like he just inherited this team from another GM who made it into the juggernaut it is. He is the man behind the franchise's current make-up, helping bring it 1 world series ring, 2 division titles, 3 playoff appearances, and 4 winning seasons in the last 5 years, not counting their 66-46 record this year. If he's doing such a terrible job without adding this apparently-needed bat, then why such broad success for the last half-decade?
Because they just plain don't need it.
This of course is not to be taken to mean the Angels would be better off without one (although one could argue that, with what they would have to give up to get one, they would be), but that the supposed pressing need to absolutely have one in order to contend is just not true. Pundits will look at the franchise and point out they have a meager 80 home runs this year (compared to the Major League average of 111), or that they once went 14 games without a home run this year. But those same pundits will convienently forget to tell you that those same Angels still somehow rank 3rd of 30 in the Major Leagues in batting average, 4th in hits, 6th in runs scored, and 1st in the American League (second only to the New York Mets in the majors) in stolen bases. For good measure, they're also 3rd in doubles, 2nd in sacrifice flies, 1st in going from first-to-third base on singles, and only 3 teams in baseball strikeout less. You don't exactly need to fish around much to find the stats showing how good of an offensive team this is.
The beauty of baseball is that there are so many ways to score a run. Not having an abudance of men who can crush a ball 450 feet doesn't deny a team the oppurtunity to have an offense-oriented club. The 2002 Anaheim Angels, the very same who won the World Series that year, were in a 3-way tie for the 21st most home runs in all of baseball. It certainly didn't stop them from succeeding. All the absence of the "big bat" does is potentially close one avenue to scoring.
Why are we not citing the contending Detroit Tigers' failure to acquire the 'big leg' at the trade deadline? Surely they could improve on their 26th-ranked stolen bases? And if the home run is so important, surely the 2nd-ranked Cincinnati Reds should be better than 16 games under .500?
The Angels' offense is not constructed around the need to hit a home run. In fact, falling back and relying on the home run to carry your offense is one of the biggest mistakes a club can make. When the home run fails you, your offense will inevitably sputter. Having role players like an Orlando Cabrera, who puts the ball in play consistently, or a Chone Figgins, who can utilize speed to force mistakes by fielders or beat out an otherwise-routine groundball, gives the Angels just as much a chance to score runs as needed. Cabrera and Figgins are just two of the Angels' five everyday players batting .300 or better right now (Vladimir Guerrero, Casey Kotchman, and Reggie Willits are the other three). Future perennial batting title contender Howie Kendrick has been on the D.L. for much of the year, and could easily turn his .297 batting average into the sixth such player upon his return.
So why the calls for the Angels to acquire such a bat? Because baseball writers tend to decry the Angels' style of play as antiquated and inferior to the offensive approach involving the home run. Because many of them are too caught up in the coverage of contenders who rely on the home run to look beyond the Angels' long ball totals and see how impressive of an offensive club they really are dealing with. It's one of role-players, one through nine in the order who know how to put the ball in play and push across runs when needed.
Nevermind the fact that they also have the 4th best ERA in the American League.
Welcome to West Coast Bias- The (Un)official blog of the Los Angeles Angels and the MLB
Since this is an introductory post, I'll keep things focused to a welcome here, before moving on to other, more topical entries.
This blog is dedicated to all of the fans of Major League Baseball, who help make it the great game that it is. It's just dedicated to those of us on the West Coast a bit more.
More specifically, it is a dedication to the fans of the Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim. A proud team with a proud, west coast tradition. A team that has lived in the shadow of media dominated east-coast coverage for decades, during which time they have quietly turned from a small-market doormat to a perennial contender.
From humble beginnings as the project of cowboy performer named Gene Autry in 1961, through years of heartbreak and despair in the 1980s and 1990s, and on towards triumph, culminating in being the champions of baseball in 2002, the Angels have been the object of millions of adoring fans over the years. In recent years, they have competed with the best, beaten the best (yes, that is a winning record against the Joe-Torre-Yankees), and remained with the best.
Being an Angels fan, and remaining one through the years of misery and mediocrity bestowed upon us, has led us finally to a team with the drive to remain competitive far into the future. Led by the finest owner baseball currently knows in Arturo Moreno, driven by superstars like Vladimir Guerrero and Francisco Rodriguez, and powered by young talent ready to produce for another decade in Casey Kotchman, Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, and many more, the Angels have become the franchise we have all long waited for as fans...even if Manny and Derek are still the world's "brand name".
With your help, I would love to see this become one of the finest blogs on the Los Angeles Angels that the internet has to offer. I would love nothing more than to foster an environment where a passion for our beloved franchise can grow...or at least grow beyond the confines of livejournal, anyway.
Mind the advertisements, please.
And welcome to West Coast Bias. Jeter fans will be towed at owner's expense.
This blog is dedicated to all of the fans of Major League Baseball, who help make it the great game that it is. It's just dedicated to those of us on the West Coast a bit more.
More specifically, it is a dedication to the fans of the Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim. A proud team with a proud, west coast tradition. A team that has lived in the shadow of media dominated east-coast coverage for decades, during which time they have quietly turned from a small-market doormat to a perennial contender.
From humble beginnings as the project of cowboy performer named Gene Autry in 1961, through years of heartbreak and despair in the 1980s and 1990s, and on towards triumph, culminating in being the champions of baseball in 2002, the Angels have been the object of millions of adoring fans over the years. In recent years, they have competed with the best, beaten the best (yes, that is a winning record against the Joe-Torre-Yankees), and remained with the best.
Being an Angels fan, and remaining one through the years of misery and mediocrity bestowed upon us, has led us finally to a team with the drive to remain competitive far into the future. Led by the finest owner baseball currently knows in Arturo Moreno, driven by superstars like Vladimir Guerrero and Francisco Rodriguez, and powered by young talent ready to produce for another decade in Casey Kotchman, Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, and many more, the Angels have become the franchise we have all long waited for as fans...even if Manny and Derek are still the world's "brand name".
With your help, I would love to see this become one of the finest blogs on the Los Angeles Angels that the internet has to offer. I would love nothing more than to foster an environment where a passion for our beloved franchise can grow...or at least grow beyond the confines of livejournal, anyway.
Mind the advertisements, please.
And welcome to West Coast Bias. Jeter fans will be towed at owner's expense.
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